Thousands of Hezbollah leaders throughout Lebanon carrying pagers were left injured, and some dead, after the pagers simultaneously exploded. While Israel has not taken responsibility for the attack, it appears that this was a coordinated attack and not just happenstance. Lt. Col. (Ret.) Jonathan Conricus joined me to lay out how this attack may have been planned out, why the attack occurred now, and if Hezbollah will retaliate.
Transcript
Below is a rush transcript that may contain errors
GLENN: Lieutenant Colonel Jonathan Conricus is with us now. He is a former Israeli defense forces spokesperson. Welcome to the program. Welcome back, sir. How are you?
JOHN: I am well, thank you for having me again.
GLENN: Good. I think the world was a little amazed at what happened yesterday. Just how -- how it was done, and the thinking that went behind it.
Can you talk about how Hezbollah got these pagers?
JOHN: Yeah. It's definitely the stuff of movies.
And I'm sure that movies will be made about it. And that this will inspire novels and thrillers in the future.
But if we connect ourselves back to the horrible reality that Israel is facing. Where about 70,000 Israeli civilians have been pushed out of their homes.
And Israel is under relentless rocket and drone fire from Lebanon.
They happen yesterday's operation. And what I'm saying here isn't an official Israeli claim of responsibility.
But I think it's safe to assume, that Israel is behind it. Well, basically Israel -- appears to have been able to do. Is to intercept. And if you would, contaminate the supply line of Hezbollah.
And to insert explosives into these beepers. The pagers.
That were disseminated by Hezbollah, to key personnel. And then once wanted to, to cause these devices to explode.
Now, it's unclear, the technical details are unclear. Whether it was causing the battery to overheat, and that caused an explosion. Or if there were inserted explosives inside the beepers. But what I think we can agree on, was that it was quite -- it had quite a massive effect on Hezbollah. They report about 5,000 of their members, that were targeted, some of them killed.
Eight, I believe, is the updated number.
And some of them significantly wounded. Many of them lost their eyesight. Others lost part of their body.
Now, what I think is interesting to look at now.
Where does this take us? Where does it take Hezbollah?
If Israel is indeed behind it, why did Israel choose to do it now.
GLENN: Wait. Wait. Wait.
Before we get to that, let me just ask you. Before we move off the pagers. How did you know?
Or -- I mean, I'm just speaking. At fiction here. Generally speaking, how would they know it was Hezbollah that had those pagers. That's an awful lot of pagers.
How do you know that those were going to Hezbollah? Do you have any idea? Speculation?
JOHN: Yeah. I will try to explain that. Hezbollah, they're a secretive organization. They're a terrorist organization. And they are aware of Israeli efforts to listen to their communications.
And to follow their activities by tracking cellular devices. Cell phones.
And as such, they have prohibited, most of their officers and ground personnel and terrorists, et cetera.
From actually having cell phones. And definitely not bringing them into secret locations. So these beepers.
They were basically an attempt by Hezbollah to circumvent Israeli listening. And eavesdropping.
I think Israel, somehow, found out about that Hezbollah was actually purchasing new beepers. And they were doing it in a large number.
And according to the reports that I've read so far, Israel was able to intercept where they were being manufactured from.
And they were able to, at some level, contaminate them. Either by implanting explosives or by having the ability to control them remotely.
I think it's more likely that they were -- yeah. That they were likely.
That they had explosives inserted into them.
From the videos, I have seen. If you haven't watched the videos. They're quite amazing.
It's really explosions that you see. And it's not a flash or a fire of the battery that is, you know, burning. But it's more, looks like explosives. And it is quite remarkable. I don't think that any other Intel organization has been able to do such a thing. To get into the supply lines of its enemy.
And to do -- and one thing I think that is important to mention. Is how targeted this operation is. Very little, if any, so-called collateral damage. Because the people who had these beepers. Were Hezbollah.
They were militants and terrorists who had this machine for a reason. And they had it for a reason.
Because they were persons of value, from a Hezbollah point of view. And they needed to get information. And messages quickly.
It's kind of like the best way of striking only the ones that you want to strike. And only striking the bad guys.
That's what Israel did. And it is in short, quite amazing.
GLENN: Yeah. I will tell you, that my first reaction was, that's why I always say on the air. We don't need to fight Israel's war for them. They'll do it. Just let them fight.
I thought this was ingenious. And, of course, Israel is saying, they could have harmed innocent people. Blah, blah, blah. How much more targeted does a war need to be? Other than right to the individuals?
All right. So why did they do it yesterday?
JOHN: Yeah. Yeah. By the way, I have to comment on what you said.
I think that's exactly what Israelis want. Let us fight. And help us win.
But we don't need anybody doing our fighting for us.
I think that's a super important point.
Especially for people who support freedom and democracy.
And, you know, want to do good for America.
I don't think Israel is asking them to do its fighting for it.
But we'll leave that aside. In terms of time.
This is where it gets interesting. And here are question marks. Because up until now.
We're almost 22 hours after the event.
Israel hasn't made a move.
And it makes sense, that, you know, for Israel to unleash, to do such an operation, it makes sense for this to be part of a bigger strategy. Designed at achieving something with Hezbollah.
GLENN: Right.
JOHN: So the questions was, was there something that Israel did because it sensed that the capacity was going to be exposed.
And it was either use it or it will get uncovered. Or it will be for nothing. That's all for nothing.
That's one option. Second option, that it is part of the negotiations. And it's part of the messaging campaign.
And basically, another effort to apply pressure on Hezbollah, which doesn't cause a war.
Because Israel has been under attack from Hezbollah now for 11 and a half months. And Israel, I think is still trying to do everything possible to get its people back home, without having to do a war in order for that to happen.
And this could be. What Israel did would perhaps be more of a blunt way of telling Hezbollah, listen. We have penetrated your organization from an Intel point of view. There's more to come.
It's in your interest. To agree to a deal.
And I think it's no coincidence. It could be no coincidence.
That envoy Volstead is in the Middle East now. Trying to bring that apart, to the parties.
Are those the two reasons. Otherwise, the third option.
This would be something that would be a preamble for an Israeli strike.
If that were the case. And Israel wanted to do more. Then, of course, the strike would be two hours after the --
GLENN: Yes. Or doing it, even.
JOHN: Exactly. Exactly.
GLENN: How is Hezbollah going to react to this? Do you think?
JOHN: Yeah. So Hezbollah, they have a few options. It will be interesting to listen to their leader. Hassan Asan (phonetic) is going to be speaking, 5:00 p.m. local. Middle Eastern time.
And we'll see, how -- what he says.
I would assume, that it would be a fire and brimstone kind of speech.
But they will get back at the evil Zionists.
And he has a lot to answer to now.
Because it's very humiliating.
And it's a significant blow.
Not that it will bring Hezbollah to its knees. But it's probably demoralizing, and there are important people who have serious injuries.
So they'll have to respond. My assessment is, that they will push back. And that they will not use this as an opportunity to de-escalate.
And to say, okay. We're in a bad spot.
Let's recalibrate. And think what we should do.
I think they will escalate from here. And that we will here very fierce rhetoric from Hezbollah.
I think that there's -- there's a slight, slight chance that the Iranians tell them, stand down. And don't escalate.
I think that what we will see from Masalah and from Hezbollah will be a response with rockets. And that they will -- enhance -- enhance the range of rockets that they are firing into Israel.
And it's quite likely, that we'll see other Iranian proxies, the Houthis in Yemen, and Iranian militias in Iraq -- enhance their attacks on Israel as well. Perhaps not quite at the level of all-out war.
But to do more, in order to try to get even. Last, point seven, as I say, that this event happened yesterday.
But a few hours before that, it was exposed that Hezbollah had planned and was actually quite close to planting an IED at Claymore. An anti-personal device in Israel. And the target was a former senior Israeli defense official. I think it was supposed to be assassinated. And that was something that the Israeli security forces. Our equivalent of the FBI. Were able to expose just hours before that.
And the things are connected.
GLENN: You shouldn't compare yourself to the FBI.
Especially now. It would have been on their radar. But they wouldn't have found it. Or done anything to stop it.
Let me -- let me take you here. I was reading today. And I think I saw it again yesterday.
That the people of -- of -- of Gaza. Are now starting to turn to Hamas. Do you believe that?
Is that propaganda? Or do you think that is war fatigue?
JOHN: That is war fatigue. There's a the brain of truth to it.
Sadly, I think there still isn't in Gaza, an alternate system, an alternate government that can come in.
And oust Hamas from power. And it's a sad situation for Palestinians. Because they have been under the oppression of Hamas. 2 million people have been oppressed. And ruled under this tyrannic organization for 17, 18 years. They have been brainwashed. But at the end of the day, they're suffering now.
And many of them are coming to the understanding, that the cause of their suffering is not Israel.
It's Hamas' rule and Hamas' tactics. And Hamas' strategies. So there are uprisings. Currently, they're being dealt with, very bluntly by Hamas.
They're killing anybody that voices any criticism, towards, towards Hamas.
And I think that the most important thing that I find missing is structure, and a political organization. That could move in.
And push Hamas out of power. And also, very importantly, as long as Hamas controls the distribution of food and human aid in Gaza.
And as long as there is an UNA organization. The UN Relief and Works Agency.
As long as they're there, Hamas will be there, and Palestinians will continue to suffer.
GLENN: Wow.
Thank you so much, Jonathan, for being on and explaining this. Lieutenant Colonel Jonathan Conricus. He is the former Israeli Defense Forces spokesperson, with an update on the Middle East.