Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to develop and move eastward this afternoon through tonight. Multiple intense, long-track tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and severe/damaging winds all appear likely.
Intense storms are expected across these areas by late afternoon. Storm coverage is likely to initially be greatest in south-central Kansas given the greater and earlier upper-level forcing. Isolated storms will still be possible along the dryline in western Oklahoma as strong heating in the Texas Panhandle should support dryline circulations that should at least locally erode inhibition. By the evening, greater forcing for ascent will arrive in western Oklahoma.
Flow aloft will be nearly perpendicular to the dryline, which will favor a discrete storm mode. Even as the weak Pacific front overtakes the dryline, low-level forcing is not expected to be strong enough to promote substantial upscale growth, especially when coupled with continued strong shear across the boundary.
Overall, there appears to be prolonged opportunity for discrete storms to form across western Oklahoma into parts of southern Kansas. While the environment during the afternoon will certainly support intense, long-track tornadoes, concern only grows by early evening.
Discrete storms are expected to move eastward into an intensifying low-level jet core in central and eastern Oklahoma into southeast Kansas. Surface-based activity will likely persist into the evening and even parts of the overnight, given continued influx of moisture and weak capping.
Photo: National Weather Service
Photo: National Weather Service
Photo: National Weather Service